The Europe-Ukraine-Russia triangle may turn into a quadruple if China enters the game. Faced with a contracting labor market and limited credit resources, East and Central European countries approach Ukraine’s associated membership in the European Union with caution, fearing that it all may end up in Kiev claiming its fair share of the pie.
EU
strategists are racking their brains over how to lure Kiev, while
keeping East European member states less concerned about it. Ukraine’s
hopes to negotiate more favorable terms failed. When President Viktor
Yanukovych requested 150 billion euros in aid to speed up the economy’s
transition to the European technical standards, even “senior” EU members
got scared. Europe just can’t afford it.
There
is no consensus between Brussels and Berlin about Ukraine. The EU
cannot promise the things it knows it cannot do. Attempts to strike a
debt refinancing deal with International Monetary Fund have produced
virtually no result: minor concessions are all Ukraine has been able to
get. One cannot promise a share in a competition-overheated market.
There’s no room for Ukrainians on the EU labor market either. Nor can
the EU guarantee unrestricted travel due to looming restrictions that
may be put in place if Britain’s latest proposals are approved. That
leaves the Eastern Partnership ideologists with no tool except political
pressure to deal with Ukraine.
The
failure of the European diplomacy in Vilnius dealt a sensitive blow to
the idea itself of European integration which no longer seems as
“naturally attractive” as it was portrayed by EU officials. The lack of
natural attractiveness has been compensated for by seemingly endless
flows of high-ranking EU dignitaries pouring into Kiev and forcing their
advice on the local government as dictatorially as though it were an
EU-governed territory. Catherine Ashton urged her EU colleagues to keep
up permanent presence in Kiev in an apparent bid to awaken the dormant
eurointegration instinct in Ukrainians.
Mykhailo
Pohrebynskiy, Director of the Kiev-based Center for Political and
Conflict Studies, slammed as unjustified attempts by both EU and Russian
politicians to press Ukraine into making its choice.
“It
[Ukraine] is unable to choose. Its current configuration dooms it to
sit on two chairs - an axiom proven by the latest political events,
though its economic aspect remains questionable. Had Europe accepted the
proposed creation of a trilateral Russian-EU-Ukrainian commission, a
compromise solution could have been found which would have ended the
‘two chairs’ situation. That failed to happen, however. Even a child
realizes that whatever the outcome, Ukraine cannot do without Russia,”
Pohrebynskiy said.
Meanwhile,
the “third force”, or the “third alternative” as you may call it, is
quietly making its way into Ukraine. Next year, the country will receive
$18 billion in loans and investments from China. A recently-signed
package of some two-dozen bilateral accords spans a wide range of trade
and economic spheres with Chinese imports to Ukraine expected to hit $10
trillion over five years.
“As
China’s strategic partner, Ukraine will have its own guaranteed export
quota, which opens up lucrative market opportunities for its industrial
and agricultural producers,” Ukraine’s Forum online newspaper reports.
The
Chinese are planning to invest $13 billion in the modernization of port
facilities and construction of a new deep-water port in Sevastopol,
Crimea, and $15 billion in Ukraine’s banking sector. China is Ukraine’s
second largest trade partner. Trade will hopefully triple on the
agreements signed by Yanukovych during his trip to Beijing.
A
plant converting coal into synthetic gas will be built by China in
Ukraine, a “breakthrough” project that may become a serious factor at
Ukraine’s future talks with Gazprom on prices for Russian gas.
Some
analysts wave it all away as too far-fetched, saying that Kiev just
flirts with China in order to make Europe and Russia more concession
friendly. But where is Ukraine and where is China economically? Besides,
China is not a simpleton to be easily fooled around and neglect its own
interests. So far, Beijing has been careful to indicate that it’s all
pure business, no politics involved.
But one never knows. Ukraine may, after all, discover that sitting on “three chairs” is better than on two.
Cheap Chinese or Chinese-Ukrainian goods flooding Europe is hardly a welcome prospect for European manufacturers.
If
Beijing sees Ukraine as a springboard for its push into Europe, then
Ukraine’s associated partnership with the EU is just what it needs.
Ukrainian ambassador to China Oleh Dyomin remarked that “of course,
China is interested in Ukraine being part of the EU space”. He added
that the Great Silk Road’s “economic corridor” created by Beijing
correlates well with Ukraine’s eurointegration plans.
As
for Russia, the existing ties, common border and demand for energy
resources guarantee stable economic cooperation with the “Celestial
Empire”. But China doesn’t see Russia as an effective mediator with
regard to other regions. If China bursts into the geopolitical battle
around Ukraine, it could mean new realities for Russia in the CIS.
(The author’s personal view may not coincide with Ọmọ Oódua’s opinion)
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