Tuesday, December 30, 2014

2014 "End of Year" report and a look into what 2015 (WW3?) might bring - by Saker

By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don't think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) "moved" this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the "vectors" of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of "unknown unknowns" (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.

MH17: Not BUK-M1: new video proof

Check out this excellent report by Dutch journalist Max Vanderwerff who debunks the reports allegedly showing a  video of a Buk-M1 launch:


There is no doubt my mind that MH17 was shot down by a Ukrainian SU-25, possibly one of several Su-25s patrolling the skies that day to intercept a civilian airliner the downing of which was to become the "surprise" Poroshenko promised and which Kolomoiskii probably organized.


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