Russia understands Syrian conflict a lot better than many Western states - expert

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The Syrian opposition has turned into a criminal group whose leaders are interested only in profit from the ongoing war. That's according to Sunday Telegraph newpaper which published a report citing many rebel fighters saying that the FSA leaders don’t want to make the regime fall because they love the conflict.
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One of the them said that at least 85 per cent of the fighting groups he used to know have started smuggling oil and cars. In an interview for the Voice of Russia, Michael O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow at the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence and Director of Research for the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, shared his opinion on the behavior of Syrian rebels and the current state of affairs in Syria.

Why, in your opinion, did it take so long for Western media to realize the true face of the armed Syrian opposition? For Russia it was an obvious fact from the very start.

This is a good question. Thank you for having me on today. Let me say two things. First, I would support the basic idea that Russia has probably understood this conflict a little better than many Western analysts. So, I will agree with you on that point. Going back two and a half years the US was a little too quick to assume that President Assad would fall and we were probably not worried enough about how insurgent groups could veer towards these extremist groups, like Al-Nusra, and have the Al Qaeda affiliates become more influential and powerful.

I think we made a mistake in the US. We were either better off tolerating that Assad remained in power, which was of course Russia’s preferred policy, or getting more serious about getting rid of him to try to help the more moderate parts of that insurgency coalesce and work together, and keep Al-Nusra out. We didn’t make that decision and unfortunately were mired in this mess. And personally believe we should support elements of the opposition more strongly, not less. But I agree with the implication of your question, that our overall approach here has not been successful and has not been very coherent.

Considering that the FSA has no real interest in fighting the Syrian authorities, what is your forecast regarding the armed conflict in Syria. Is the end of the conflict in sight?

Again, I'm not sure I agree with everything you are assuming yourself here. I mean, I’m acknowledging that we’ve not done a good job with this in the US overall. But I’m not going necessarily agree with you that every part of the insurgency is hopeless or that they are not interested in taking the fight against the regime.

I think, in fact, that they are broken up into many pieces, they are not strong enough, they are right now dispirited and demoralized, because they’ve lost ground in the last year. I think that’s the best way to understand the insurgency, as opposed to assuming that somehow it doesn’t even have an interest in fighting. It is losing – I think that’s the better way to look at it. It is losing or, at best, it is stalemated.

And it is not a cohesive group that is able to fight together very well. So, those I think are the fundamental realities. We can then move on and offer different proposals about what to do. But that I think is the basic diagnosis of the situation.

Given the fragmentation, which is I think apparent. You were speaking of the fragmentation that has been the case for quite some time. And I think it is getting worse, as they are losing. What do you think the future of Syria will bring and does the rule of Bashar al-Assad have a place in Syria’s future?

What I hope is that, even though there is not likely to be any immediate progress of change, that maybe within, let’s say, a year we could have a situation similar to what happened in Bosnia 20 years ago, where there becomes a possibility of some kind of a negotiated settlement, perhaps, with a federalism or self-partition arrangement. There could be an Alawite part of the country, there could be certain mixed cities in the middle that remain mixed, there could be a Sunni stronghold in the east and a Kurdish stronghold in the north. And the, perhaps, Assad could remain part of either weak umbrella federal Government for the entire Syria or, perhaps, for the Alawite section that I’m envisioning or postulating.

To me that is one possible outcome that we could aspire to, maybe, in a year. I don’t think it is ripe for agreement at the moment. But that’s the kind of thing I'm hopeful we can get to. Right now it looks pretty helpless and I see a military stalemate continuing for a while.

How long do you think the West, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will continue to sponsor the FSA? And at what point will money be given to Syria to help them rebuild? Obviously, there is the problem of the weapons that have slipped into the country and that have been dispersed, and also, perhaps, the possibility that these have gotten into the hands of Al Qaeda insurgents?

I think the Saudis and the Qataris and the Turks will continue to support the Sunni insurgents. The US will remain fairly ambivalent. Iran and Hezbollah will support Assad. And therefore, I believe that the stalemate will continue for a while. And that is part of why I would actually support the greater American help for the moderate elements of the insurgency to try to create a more even balance so that we can try to get to a negotiation, if not in January in Geneva, then hopefully later on. I don’t know if the January’s session is going to be very serious, but we can at least get started and hope for a better progress later in 2014