United States wants UK to remain a 'strong, robust, united, and effective partner' US President Barack Obama says. That he says alongside British Prime Minister David Cameron at a press conference following the G7 summit.
Scottish government says independent Scotland retains close ties with rest of UK and US in event of positive vote in referendum, which to be held on September 18th. Jaume Castan Pinos, Assistant Professor of International Politics and Political Theory at the Department of Border Region Studies of the University of Southern Denmark comments on situation.
What do you think the result of the independence referendum in Scotland will be?
I think there is a lot of uncertainty, according to the latest figures independence support is not as strong as the supporters would wish. So far it doesn’t look so well for separatists. However, things could change a lot, because we’re talking about a very sensitive issue. Territoriality is always sensitive and, I believe, we may have some unexpected changes here.
We have all summer and all of September. Maybe the polls will tighten up a little bit, maybe more people will start to express a “yes” to the independence vote the closer we get.
Absolutely, that is a possibility. However, as you mentioned, there will be plenty of pressure, for example, from the US. You mentioned Barak Obama endorsing David Cameron. Of course, for him and for the United States it is important to keep the so-called special relationship with the UK. That brings us to a very interesting element which is an element of hypocrisy, because in Quebec, for example, in 1995 Bill Clinton strongly opposed the Quebec independence from Canada. However, they don’t seem to have such concerns when it comes to Central-Eastern Europe where they have actively been supporting independence movements, for example, in former Yugoslavia.
Furthering this, Scotland plays a major role in the defense of the UK. I believe there are several navy bases that would be there. And what would happen to that. Surely that has to play some part in whether the British element would allow the Scottish element to separate?
I think there is a question of nuclear weapons and so on, but I fear that the SNP has taken a more pragmatic view on that. They used to be opposed to NATO but it seems they have been vulnerable and susceptible to the pressures. Now their stance is quite different. They claim that they would like to join NATO after attaining independence. It seems that the pressures are working and the SNP doesn’t want to antagonize mostly the United States and NATO states. They want to be seen as a new friendly state. We see an element of pragmatism here.
I’d like to go back to what you just touched upon in our previous question. You mentioned that Bill Clinton back in the 90s was very opposed to Quebec leaving Canada. The current US President, Barak Obama said that it is up to the Scottish people themselves to decide whether they want to be independent of not even thought the US would like the UK to stay united. In your opinion, does the US have any influence in deciding the future of Scotland?
I think they do and they are very aware of that. We haven’t seen the end of that story, we still have the summer and we will see US pressures during this period and before the referendum, because they are not interested in Scotland being an independent state. They said whenever it comes to allies, we remember the old rule of territorial integrity and we seem to forget that very same rule when it comes to non-allies. That are, they said, double standards. We don’t believe in the rule of territorial integrity unless our interests are in jeopardy. In the example of Kosovo we see how violated this rule. I think I should agree with some scholars who said that Kosovo had set a precedent for separatism. This is also related to Catalonia. In the case of Scotland we have agreed independence but perhaps we would also like to talk about a referendum on the 5 November in Catalonia which is a case of non-agreed independence.
Could you tell us a bit more about the precedent that was set in Kosovo?
I have been doing research in Kosovo three days ago and I have been observing how the elections work. There were plenty of EU observers, plenty of OSCE observers whose sole mission is to put pressure on the Serbs, so they would vote and they would recognize the legitimacy of the next Assembly elections. It is, in my view, a historical mistake – a specter that will hunt his own creators, some sort of Frankenstein? I have to agree with President Putin, it sets a president, and, of course, separatists in Western Europe will use it. I think it will be very legitimate for them, because they have a case.
I don’t understand how one group of people can put pressure on another group of people to vote in only one way. Is it a democracy, don’t we have a choice - yes or no, or left or right, or black or white?
This is a question Kathleen nationalists (Kathleen/Cathleen Ni Houlihan – symbol and emblem of Irish nationalism – ed.) are raising if we believe in democracy why are we so afraid of democracy? This is an element that we perhaps should propose to the Spanish government.
What is the independence movement in Catalonia? Can you explain the situation there to us, please?
The movement has been growing spectacularly due to several causes. For example, we see that there is discontent with the system, not only with the Spanish system, but with the EU in general. Separatist protests occur mostly when there is a politic and an economic failure. Similarly to Yugoslavia, both are occurring at the same time in the case of Spain. We also have cultural and political grievances. And, of course, the case of Scotland creates positive international synergies that pro-independents in Catalonia are taking advantage of. As you mentioned early on, there is also a wish to go back to democracy. Many Catalonians feel that these democratic principals have been lost as a result of the elitism of the European Union.
Do people in Europe even really have a democracy today? Couldn’t it be argued that most of the decisions are made in Brussels?
That is certainly a feeling that many have and that is also an explanation of these separatism movements. People want to take control of their own economic policies, people want to take control of their own nation, people don’t want to be ruled by some bureaucrats in Brussels most of which they have not elected and most of which they have never heard of. Separatism can also be understood in this context. Even thought separatism in Catalonia is not Eurosceptic per say there is this element not wanting to be ruled by Brussels.
Will we see a rise of separatist moods in Europe in more places? We have Catalonia, we have Scotland.
Yes, indeed. There is a case of Flanders where the NVA has got spectacular results in the last European elections. We also have the case of the Basque Country of course, where the national separatist parties are leading election after election. So we do have a potential. And even thought the vote in Scotland is negative, separatism will not disappear from Europe. That’s my prognosis.
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