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The kindly huntsman didn’t kill Snow White. He left her in the forest, and she wandered into the cottage of the Seven Dwarfs, who came home to find her sleeping astride their seven beds. After explaining herself, the dwarfs elected she could live with them. As you know, every polity has citizens with varied peculiarities, just like the seven dwarfs named Doc, Grumpy, Happy, Sleepy, Bashful, Sneezy and Dopey. They said she could stay if she could “keep house for us, and cook, make beds, wash, sew, and knit, and keep everything clean and orderly.” They warned her to be careful when alone, and let no one into the house when they went into the mountains.
Political scientists would say this is a Social Contract of a sort; an agreement between a ruler and citizens. The covenant lets a ruler keep the house — run the economy, and protect the people, using whatever ways and means he can muster. An observer, presuming that the presidential candidacy of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party is a shoo-in for incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, has counselled the main opposition political party, the All Progressives Congress, to start searching for a presidential candidate. Nigerians, who thrive on government sinecures and patronages, always want to know who will hold court at Aso Rock.
And just as well. February 14, 2015, when Nigerians must elect a new President, is fast approaching. Would President Jonathan, whose Transformation Agenda is not an exactly fantastic economic locomotive, be re-elected? Or would another, the devil you don’t even know, become President? There is every reason to ask, because the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria wields immense political and economic power, and can make or break the fortunes of the entire nation. If former President Olusegun Obasanjo says Nigeria is at the crossroads, the presidential election must be its most significant beacon.
Nigerian politicians, military or civilian, have a penchant for changing the policies of their predecessors, regardless of their merit. This breeds instability, and disrupts progress. To avoid policy summersaults, the electorate may opt to re-elect President Jonathan, despite the “wobbling and fumbling” of his administration. You can’t really be too sure of the sincerity and competence of any of the presidential aspirants, anyway. Dark horses are always “unknown quantities,” to borrow a lingo from Nigeria’s First Republic. Many untested Nigerian politicians come with grand promises, only to disappoint in a grander manner. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Talk on the street is that President Jonathan has no serious competition from the mixed multitude of potential presidential candidates, many of whom, are not so faceless anymore. The other day, an obvious Jonathan partisan, called — raving and cursing — in a most incoherent manner, and then hung up abruptly. Though it was difficult to make sense of what the ranting was all about, it finally did seem like he was suggesting that every southerner, especially newspaper columnists, must favour the re-election bid of a southern presidential aspirant, even if the scorecard of his first time out does not add up.
The rather emotional partisan didn’t really need to go berserk. He should also note that: “Those who praise everyone do a vast disservice to those few who truly deserve (praise).” Yet, President Jonathan remains the candidate to beat. Apart from the levers of incumbency, other considerations, not necessarily of his making, weigh heavily against his potential challengers. It’s not about preferring the Peoples Democratic Party over the All Progressives Congress, or any other political party; rooting for a southern, over a northern, candidate; or whether the President has served the people well or not. The odds in the faulty Nigerian political system just happen to work against other contestants.
Many of the touted aspirants lack the “attraction” of presidential candidate Jonathan. Not even the PDP aspirants posturing as anointed of the northern establishment stand a chance. It will take a long, and hard, search to find a sellable candidate to challenge him. Many aspirants, offering themselves through personal pitches, proxies, or body language, don’t cut the ice. The serial defection from the ruling political party, to the opposition, and back, show politicians bereft of focus and principles. Whereas the electorate in the Second Republic could vote for candidates they didn’t quite know, if the political party they trusted, present them, today’s politicians must fight for their shirts.
By the way, the APC National Chairman, John Odigie-Oyegun, thinks there is something to the serial defection after all. He posits: “What is happening is that both the PDP and the APC are being purified (so that) birds that should flock together are beginning to flock together… We don’t want people who don’t have the same ideology (with us) or (are) not committed to the ideology.” Bunkum. The revolving door mode of defection appears more like “opolo wo bi to tutu ta si,” a covetous toad ogling every wetland.
Many presidential hopefuls come with serious negative baggage like obscurity; inexperience; perceived stain of corruption; association with some “wrong people;” military background that some interpret as impediment to tolerating dissenting views; rejection even by their own kinsmen; inability to demonstrate understanding of the problems of Nigeria, and offering appropriate solutions, like the late Obafemi Awolowo did; and being perceived as parochial promoters of ethnic or sectional agenda, again like Awolowo, whom the late Dim Chukwuemeka Odimegwu-Ojukwu, sarcastically referred to as “the best President Nigeria never had.”
All Candidate Jonathan needs do to remain in office is simply publish dossiers of the foibles, misdemeanours and shortcomings of his opponents; and continue with his ongoing sneak media blitzkrieg to burnish his image. There is no strong ideological platform or candidate out there with enough charisma to effectively contest the political space with him. Remember, Snow White was fairer and larger than all the seven dwarfs put together. Right now, no political structure is bigger than the PDP in Nigeria, though former Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki suggests that with 16 million registered members, the APC is good to take the presidency.
Perhaps, only Obasanjo has enough charisma to contest the political space with Candidate Jonathan. But the constitution and his ill-advised Third Term bid disqualify him. So folk, if it’s not President Jonathan, it will be President Jonathan in 2015. This has nothing to do with his politics. But if Nigeria were to revert to the parliamentary system, the horse-trading that comes with that territory can be used to outmanoeuvre him. He holds all the aces with the presidential system, now that it looks like Obasanjo no longer has the force majeure to impose presidential candidates. It is worrisome that Nigeria’s democracy offers no real choice to the electorate, as there are no Giant Killers in the pack of presidential aspirants. Put differently, the opposition needs to do more homework.
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