Ruble Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Economic War

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by Aleksei Kettunen
Translation to English: Petri Krohn

Russian ruble exchange rate changes have all the ingredients of success detective story. On Monday, 15.12. 2014 ruble weakened to a record low since 1998: the dollar cost 64 rubles and 79 rubles to the euro. In recent years, the price of an euro has been hanging around 50 rubles, or 5 000 rubles withdrawn from an ATM for a night of adventures in St. Petersburg would cost around 100 euros.

Taliban raid Pakistan primary school, kill 80 children

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Islamic terror group, the Taliban, around 10 this morning launched a deadly attack on a military-run primary school in Northwestern city of Peshawar in Pakistan, killing 100 people, 80 of them children, according to the BBC. They are also reportedly holding over 100 children hostage. Over 500 students have so far been evacuated.

According to reports, the militants stormed the school's auditorium this morning where the students were learning first aid training from the military and started shooting.

The Russian Central Bank's "counterattack" lasted 30 mins!

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The result of the Russian Central Bank's hike in interest rates turned out to be worse then my worst nightmares: it reversed the downward spiral of the Ruble for only about half an hour, then the Russian currency resumed its collapse.  Rumor has it that the Central Bank might begin buying Rubles next, which I personally don't see as useful at this point.

I have asked for expert opinions and I hope to get them soon.  In the meantime, here is my own take on this which, caveat emptor, is backed by ZERO personal expertise in these matters.  Still, for whatever it's worth, my own speculations: