Question from 15yr olds in an African rural school students.

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A group of 15yr olds in an African rural school students ask me these questions :
1. If Russia has invaded, invaded, invaded and is full of so much aggression and 'Imperial' take over  like the AngloAmerican corporate media tell us :
- how come the Russian speakers are still just defending an airport and railway junction?
- how come the Russian Army has not managed to take Kiev, Lvov, Paris and be on their way to Rome and Istanbul by now?

2. Who is supplying the Ukrainian army with their weapons? We see youtubes of white phosphorus, cluster munitions, grad missiles, tanks and heinous weapons being used on citizens in their towns ... women, children, the elderly killed daily. The E.Ukraine citizens who have become soldiers defending their towns are seen tortured, shot by AZOV fascist forces; bodies found missing body parts.

Reused false flag: Nemtsov murder scenario has already been used in Ukraine to start the Orange revolution

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El Murid

Translated by Kristina Rus

The Murder of Nemtsov in the Name of The Head of Gongadze

The story with Nemtsov resembles and frankly is copied from another iconic story - the murder of Georgy Gongadze. This, of course, does not exclude purely domestic, business or even personal nature of this crime. However, media discourse has already been formed. The Opposition March (formally funeral) forgot about Nemtsov already yesterday - all the slogans and chants had little relation to Nemtsov. 

Was Nemtsov's murder fruitless? The "Russian Maidan" turns into a "Rally of the Patriots"

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Sergey Zheleznyak, Deputy Chairman of Russian State Duma 

Translated by Kristina Rus

"Thank you to all who participated in the memorial event dedicated to the death of Boris Nemtsov, expressed their grief and and did not allow to use this tragedy to radicalize the protest, which was designed by the masterminds of this shooting.

Colombian Rebels Free Mayor Captured in December

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Members of the rebel group known as National Liberation Army of Colombia (ELN) have released Freddy Ramirez Palacios, the mayor of Alto Baudo, Colombia. Ramirez was abucted in December of last year.

The rebel group had taken Ramirez hostage after corruption accusations. Although he had been missing since mid-February, the ELN only confirmed they had abducted him earlier this month. 

Nemtsov murder: Putin warned about exactly this type of "false flag" two years ago

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One thing needs to be kept in mind concerning the recent Nemtsov murder: he was a politician way past his prime. His political weight was low even within the Russian opposition, which as a whole is extremely weak right now; for most people, this assassination is the first time they'll hear about Nemtsov in a year or more. Many even argue that Nemtsov was a "decorative" asset for Putin as a stable, familiar, relatively honest but powerless opposition figure.

 In short, this makes no sense, sort of like murdering Ross Perot in the USA. For Putin, Nemtsov as a martyr is a far, far bigger problem than he ever was alive. If not within Russia itself, where most people seem to be baffled (again, Ross Perot assassination), then on the international diplomatic and mass media stage, where people can be easily convinced Nemtsov was killed because he "was a threat to Putin". Three years ago, Putin warned about this exact scenario. Who benefits? May be internal Russian opposition, Ukrainian government, American government, heck even islamic extremists - but Putin doesn't benefit, that's for sure. Make your own conclusions.

M. Khazin, “Relevant notes on Greece”

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Source: http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1819611 

Translated by Mikhael 

A brief overview of post-election situation in Greece. This is a translation of the Russian version, there is also a published Greek translation 

There is a new government in Greece. A left-wing government that has a rather complicated relationship with the “sacred right of private ownership”, particularly when it comes to Greek sovereign debt. In other words, it is leaning towards triggering a full blown debt crisis in the EU (and possibly impacting the entire world). But, as we have been taught back in 2008, a crisis doesn’t just bring problems, it also unveils new opportunities. That’s why it is important to have a more in-depth understanding of Greek politics, in particular to be able to recognize who will benefit from these new opportunities. To be able to analyze the situation correctly, it is necessary to explain one very important point crucial to understanding the events that are unfolding in the EU today. 

Breaking news: FALSE FLAG IN MOSCOW!

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Nemtsov with Yushchenko

Boris Nemtsov has been shot dead in Moscow.  He was one of the most charismatic leaders of the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia (please understand that in the Russian context "liberal" and "democratic" means pro-US or even CIA-run, while "non-system" means too small to even get a single deputy in the Duma).  He was shot just a few days before the announced demonstration of the very same "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition scheduled for March 1st. 

As I have already explained many times on this blog, the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia has a popular support somewhere in the range of 5% (max). In other words, it is politically *dead* (for a detailed explanation, please read "From Napoleon to Adolf Hitler to Conchita Wurst").  In the hopes of getting a higher number of people to the streets the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system"opposition allied itself with the ultra-nationalists (usually useful idiots for the CIA) and the homosexual activists (also useful idiots for the CIA).  Apparently, this was not enough.

Ukraine Prepares for an Attack Against Russia ?

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By: Eric Zuesse

The post-coup leaders of Ukraine have routinely said that Ukraine should destroy Russia; and, now, starting on February 24th, they are placing into position the key prerequisite for doing so, which is the advanced Anti-Ballistic-Missile, or ABM, system, S-300, which is described as follows by wikipedia: 

“The S-300 is regarded as one of the most potent anti-aircraft missile systems currently fielded.[3] Its radars have the ability to simultaneously track up to 100 targets while engaging up to 12/24/36 targets. The S-300 deployment time is five minutes.[3] The S-300 missiles are sealed rounds and require no maintenance over their lifetime. An evolved version of the S-300 system is the S-400 (NATO reporting name SA-21 Growler), which entered limited service in 2004.”

The S-300 (otherwise called “SAM C-300”) is designed to protect against retaliation. The entire purpose of ABMs is to disable retaliation. In that sense, ABMs are the most aggressive weapons of all. They are specifically designed to prevent retaliation from a nation that has been attacked and that is responding by sending in its own bombers to retaliate.

Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød

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Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days.  What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:

A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:

According to a recent poll of the Latvian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy.  Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html

Iraqi Army Downs Two British Planes Carrying Weapons for ISIL Terrorists

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There are no reports in the Western mainstream media pertaining to this issue.

This report is based on statements emanating from the Iraq parliament, with photographic evidence. We have not been in a position to corroborate this report by FARS News.

* * *

Iraq’s army has shot down two British planes as they were carrying weapons for the ISIL terrorists in Al-Anbar province, a senior lawmaker disclosed on Monday.

82% of Lithuanian viewers support Russia

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Mikle1
Translated by Kristina Rus

Lithuanian TV station TV3 held a survey which aimed to discredit Russia, but the results were just the opposite.

The viewers were asked: "Do you see a growth in Russian propaganda in Lithuania?".

Die Zeit: Azov Battalion recruits Ukrainians in Germany through social media

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Die Zeit: Azov Battalion recruits Ukrainians in Germany through social media

By Volker Siefert

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The Ukrainian diaspora is providing material assistance to Kiev’s army, writes Die Zeit. It is operating through social media, which is also used to recruit volunteers for the right-radical formations such as Azov and UNA-UNSO. Experts consider this a major source of danger, since the extremists who are earning political capital in the conflict are not interested in a diplomatic resolution.

Kharkov experts gather in Russia to discuss a creation of Kharkov Republic days before the terrorist attack

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February 25, 2015
Mikhail Slobodskoy - Stoletie
Translated by Kristina Rus

In Belgorod on February 20, a round table was held, called "Kharkov-2015: how to avoid socio-economic and humanitarian disaster in the region." To discuss current and future problems of their region gathered the representatives of public organizations and movements, journalist, expert, legal community of Kharkov region

To find the common ground the Kharkov "maidanites" were invited to the meeting, however, as it turned out, they received threats from the "competent authorities" of Ukraine, prohibiting participation in the event, which was announced in social networks of the Internet, and already at this stage, caused a strong reaction.

Feds Raid Texas Secessionists' Meeting, Search & Fingerprint All Attendees

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Armed law enforcement officers raided a meeting of the Republic of Texas, a secessionist group intent on breaking the state away from the US, as they gathered to discuss their anti-fed agenda.

Around 20 armed officers corralled the 60 group members and confiscated their cellphones and equipment, and prevented them from leaving the room.

"We had no idea what was going on," said John Jarnecke, president of the Republic of Texas. "We knew of nothing that would warrant such an action."

Why was the group raided?

A defeat for U.S./NATO-backed facists in Ukraine

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The independent people’s republics of Novorossiya celebrated an historic victory of the anti-fascist people’s militias over U.S.-backed Ukrainian military forces near the railroad hub town of Debaltsevo on the shared border of Donetsk and Lugansk in the Donbass region.

Thousands poured into Donetsk city’s central square on Feb. 23 under the statue of Soviet leader V.I. Lenin to mark their second decisive military victory over Ukraine’s vastly larger, better equipped forces in less than a year.

How to denazify the Nazis?

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The withdrawal of heavy weapons and M2A:
 
The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that "the necessary conditions have not been created". In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don't have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.

3 fronts for Russia: How Washington will fan the flames of chaos in Central Asia

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by Ivan Lizan for Odnako

Source: http://www.odnako.org/blogs/tri-fronta-dlya-rossii-kak-vashington-razduet-plamya-haosa-v-sredney-azii/ 

Translated by Robin 

U.S. Gen. “Ben” Hodges’ statement that within four or five years Russia could develop the capability to wage war simultaneously on three fronts is not only an acknowledgment of the Russian Federation’s growing military potential but also a promise that Washington will obligingly ensure that all three fronts are right on the borders of the Russian Federation. 

In the context of China’s inevitable rise and the soon-to-worsen financial crisis, with the concomitant bursting of asset bubbles, the only way for the United States to maintain its global hegemony is to weaken its opponents. And the only way to achieve that goal is to trigger chaos in the republics bordering Russia. 

A year since the coup: Yanukovich interviewed by Russia 1 (Video)

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February 21, 2015

Russia 1

Translated by Kristina Rus

Like we said on that day Friday, February 21 of last year an agreement between president Yanukovich and the opposition was signed in Kiev mediated by heads of Foreign Ministries of European countries. But on the following day, nothing was left of the compromise, and Yanukovich was forced to leave Kiev. Then our correspondent Alexander Balitsky was providing us with the latest reports from Maidan, and today he spoke to the former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich. We have not seen him in a long time.

How does it feel to be a president in exile, and are you ready to go back to Ukraine, and what would you like to say to the Ukrainians when you go back?

I spent many sleepless nights. I don't want to say much. If God has saved my life, if God will give me an opportunity to do what's necessary today to defend the rights of the people, to defend them from the turmoil and lawlessness that now takes place in the country, I will do everything in my power.

The press in Banderastan

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The new Eurocraine has decided to mark the first anniversary of its glorious revolution by removing the accreditation of over 100 Russian news organizations from any official state body.  We should salute that.  Initially, Russian journalists were simply kidnapped and often murdered, now they are simply denied accreditation and the Russian media banned from the Ukrainian controlled outlets.  I suppose that this is a form of "progress".

The Maidan - one year later

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The next Ukie president?

Today is the first anniversary of the deal made between Yanukovich and the "opposition" and guaranteed by foreign ministers Radosław Sikorski of Poland, Laurent Fabius of France and Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany.  As we all know, the deal resulted in a withdrawal of the security forces from the Kiev city center immediately followed by an armed insurrection which overthrew the government.  Predictably, Poland, France and Germany did not object.  I won't recount all of the events which happened since this infamous day, but I think that it is important to look at what has changed in a year.  I think that it also makes sense to compare what I had predicted might happen with what actually happened simply to see if a person if a person with no access to any classified data and who is using only "open sources" for his analysis could have predicted what happened or if this was all a huge and totally unpredictable surprise.

So let's look at my predictions in a chronological order.

November 30th, 2013: in "The Gates of Hell are Opening for the Ukraine"

The supposedly "pro-Russian" Eastern Ukrainians 

They have no vision, no ideology, no identifiable future goal.  All they can offer is a message which, in essence, says "we have no other choice than sell out to the rich Russians rather than to the poor European" or "all we can get from the EU is words, the Russians are offering money".  True.  But still extremely uninspiring, to say the least.

The future of Yanukovich 

I am beginning to fear that this will all explode into a real and very dangerous crisis for Russia.  First, I am assuming that the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will eventually prevail, and that Yanukovich will either fully complete his apparent "zag" and reverse his decision, or lose power.  One way or another the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will, I think, prevail.  There will be more joyful demonstrations, fireworks and celebrations in Kiev, along with lots of self-righteous back-slapping and high-fiving in Brussels, and then the gates of Hell will truly open for the Ukraine. 

The real risks for Russia

Being drawn into the inevitable chaos and violence with will flare up all over the Ukraine (including the Crimean Peninsula), stopping or, at least, safely managing a likely flow of refugees seeking physical and economic safety in Russia and protecting the Russian economy from the consequences of the collapse of Ukrainian economy.  Russia will have to do all that while keeping its hands off the developing crisis inside the Ukraine as it is absolutely certain that the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will blame Russia for it all.  The best thing Russia could do in such a situation would be to leave the Ukrainians to their private slugfest and wait for one side or the other to prevail before trying to very carefully send out a few low-key political "feelers" to see if there is somebody across the border who has finally come to his/her senses and is capable and ready to seriously begin to rebuilt the Ukraine and its inevitable partnership with Russia and the rest of the Eurasian Union.  As long as that does not happen Russia should stay out, as much as is possible.

Sarajevo on the Dniepr

Right now, all the signs are that the Ukraine is going down the "Bosnian road" and that things are going to get really ugly.

It is hard to tell, but my sense is that when the local authorities in the southeastern Ukraine threaten not to accept any regime change in Kiev they probably do really mean it.  This very much reminds me of the repeated warnings of the Bosnian-Serbs that they would not accept to live in an Islamic state run by an rabid fanatic like Itzebegovich.  At the time, and just like today, nobody took these warnings seriously and we all know how that ended.  The big difference between Bosnia and the Ukraine is first and foremost one of dimensions: Bosnia has an area of 19,741 square miles and a population of 3,791,622 while the Ukraine has an area of 233,090 square miles and a population of 44,854,065.  That is a huge difference which make a direct foreign intervention a much more complicated endeavor. 

And Russia in all that?
I can only repeat that Russia should stay out of whatever happens in the Ukraine.  The Russian government should prepare for an influx of refugees and the Russian military should be placed on high alert to avoid any provocations or cross-border violence.  A special goal for Russia should be to use all the means possible to avoid any violence on the Crimean Peninsula because of the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol which can find itself in the position of the 14th Army in Transdniestria when it simply had not other choice than to get involved due to the high number of officers with relatives living in the republic.  If, God forbid, the nationalist try to militarily take over the Crimean Peninsula or Sevastopol I don't see how the Black Sea Fleet could stay uninvolved - that is simply impossible and this is why that situation needs to be avoided at all costs.

January 26th, 2014:  Yanukovich's latest move might make a partition of the Ukraine unavoidable:

The partition of the Ukraine is inevitable

This has, of course, not been reported in the western Ziomedia, but the eastern Ukraine is now also bubbling with political actions.  To make a long story short, the folks in the southeastern Ukraine have no desire whatsoever to let folks like Iatseniuk, Klichko or Tiagnibok rule over them.  In fact, several local assembles - including the Parliament of Crimea - have adopted resolution calling on the President to restore law and order and warning that they would never accept a "regime change" in Kiev.

March 1st, 2014: Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine - now Russia is ready for war 

Russia is ready for war

Something absolutely huge has just happened in Russia: the Russian Council of the Federation, the equivalent of the US Senate, has justUNANIMOUSLY passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine, something the Duma had requested earlier.  Before the vote took place, Russian senators said that Obama had threatened Russia, insulted the Russian people and that they demanded that Putin recall the Russian ambassador to the USA.  I have never seen such a level of outrage and even rage in Russia as right now.   I hope and pray that Obama, and his advisers, stop and think carefully about their next step because make no mistake about that RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR.

April 23rd, 2014: The US plan for the Ukraine - a hypothesis 

The US will try to force Russia to intervene in the Donbass

The eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what. So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:

a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.

Clearly, option 'a' is by far the worst.  Option 'b' is so-so, but option 'c' is very nice.  Think of it:  this option will make it look like Russia invaded the Eastern Ukraine and that the people there had no say about it.  It will also make the rest of the Ukraine rally around the flag.  The economic disaster will be blamed on Russia and the Presidential election of May 25th can be canceled due to the Russian "threat".  Not only that, but a war - no matter how silly - is the *perfect* pretext to introduce martial law which can be used to crack down on the Right Sector or anybody expressing views the junta does not like.  That is an old trick - trigger a war and people will rally around the regime in power.  Create a panic, and people will forget the real issues.

As for the USA - it also knows that the Eastern Ukraine is gone.  With Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gone - the Ukraine has exactly *zero* value to the Empire, to why not simply use it as a way to create a new Cold War, something which would be much more sexy that the Global War on Terror or the really old War on Drugs.  After all, if Russia is forced to intervene militarily NATO will have to send reinforcements to "protect" countries like Poland or Latvia just in case Putin decides to invade all of the EU.

Bottom line - the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to "win" against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to "win" against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene.  In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the "invading Russian hordes" than to lose it to the local civilian population.

So the purpose of the next attack will not be to win, but to lose.  That the Ukrainian military can still do.

Two things can happen to foil this plan:

1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct "purely moral" choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.

Ideally, a combination of both.

So let's summarize the above:

1. Yanukovich will be overthrown.  Check
2. The Donbass will rise up.  Check
3. The Ukraine will be partitioned.  Check
4. A civil war will break out.  Check
5. The US will try to pull Russia in. Check
6. Russia will protect Crimea.  Check
7. Russia will say out of the Donbass.  Check
8. Russia will have to deal with refugees.  Check
9. The US/NATO will not intervene like in Bosnia.  Check
10. The Ukrainian economy will collapse. Check

There is one point which I did really get wrong: the people of Novorussia.  I saw them as very passive, interested only in getting paid (in Hrivnas or Rubles - doesn't matter) and with very real Russian national identity.  Here I got it very wrong, but in my defense I would say that the Russian identity of people of the Donbass was awaken by the huge military assault of Ukrainian military and by the clearly russophobic and neo-Nazi rethoric and policies of the junta.  But setting aside the motivations of the Novorussians, I did predict that the Donbass would rise up, and it did.  In fact, it looks to me like my predictions resulted in a score of 10 out of 10.

My point is not to congratulate myself (I sincerely wish my pessimistic predictions would have turned out wrong), but to demonstrate that anybody armed with a) basic knowledge of Russia and the Ukraine b) access to open sources information c) basic common sense could have made all of these predictions.

There are, however, also events which I completely failed to foresee: the amazing inability of the Ukrainian military to get anything done.  On July 1st, 2014, in a post entitled "Novorussia - Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle" I wrote:

The worst which can happen is that a lot of Novorussian defenders get killed, that the towns of Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and others will get basically flattened and most of their inhabitants killed, that the road between Donetsk and Lugansk gets cut-off by the Ukies and that Ukie forces enter deep inside these two cities. 
I have to be honest here, there is a pretty good chance that all of the above will happen in the next 24 hours. 
If that happens, I would like to remind you all that entering into a city is one thing, taking control of it is quite another.  Think Beirut, think Grozny, think Baghdad, think Fallujah, think Gaza, think Bint Jbeil.  Even if Poroshenko announces that Donetsk and Lugansk have "fallen", this will be only a empty statement on par with Dubya's "mission accomplished".  What will *really* happen is that the type of warfare taking place will change.  Not only will it change, but the new (urban) type of warfare will almost completely negate the current huge advantage in aviation, artillery and armor of the Ukie side.  So if these cities "fall" - please do not despair. 
I hope that Novorussians will be able to resist the Ukie attack, but I also know that by all accounts the kind of firepower the junta is using now is truly huge - we are dealing with a merciless and massive attack with everything the junta could muster and we have to accept that the Novorussian Defense Forces might have to retreat deeper into the cities or even go underground.  While heroic for sure, it is not smart to stay in the open when your enemy is using Smerch and Uragan MRLS against you or even the building you are in.  During the first Chechen war the Chechen retreated deeply inside Grozny and did not even bother defending the outskirts, in part because the city center buildings were far stronger than the flimsy houses in the suburbs.  I never studied the layout of the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk, but if they are typical of the way the Soviets liked to build, then retreating into the city center and giving up the suburbs would probably make sense. 
The first defensive option is to let the Ukies enter the suburbs and then cut them off, envelop (surround) them, and then attack them.  If that works, great!  But if the Ukies clear the way with massive sustained strikes and flatten their way in, then it will become necessarily to switch to "plan B" and retreat deeper into the cities.  If the Ukie advance is multi-pronged and too fast, or if the city center defenses were not adequately prepared (for whatever reason), then plan "C" is to go more or less underground and switch to an active mobile defense centered on short but intense ambushes followed by immediate retreats.

What really happened took my by complete surprise: initially the Ukrainian forces did move in, but soon they were bogged down and then gradually surrounded by the Novorussians.  In fact, both during the junta's summer offensive and during it's winter offensive the Novorussians succeeded in crushing the Ukrainian forces even in open terrain: steppes, hills, fields and forests.  The other amazing thing which happened is that for the first time in the past 200 years there were more combatants killed on the Ukrainian side than military personnel.  The German intelligences sources estimate the number of victims of this war at about 50'000.  That figure sure makes sense to me.  That kind of outcome and these kinds of figures can only be explained by a huge, truly immense, difference in combat capabilities between the junta forces and the Novorussians.  Unimpressed as I was by the Novorussian behavior in February-March I failed to imagine that this rather passive and peaceful folk would turn into formidable combatants who would so radically defeat a vastly superior force (at least on paper), not once, but twice. Even as late as October 24th, in a post entitled "What could the next Junta offensive against Novorussia look like?" I again failed to predict the almost immediate defeat of the junta's winter offensive. I wrote:

What the Ukies are preparing is rather obvious. They will pick several key axes of attack along which they will unleash a massive artillery attack. This fire preparation will serve to prepare for a push by Ukrainian armored units (this time around we can expect the Ukrainian infantry to properly defend their tanks and not the other way around). The Ukrainians will not push deep into Donetsk or Lugansk, but rather they will try to, again, cut-off and surround Donetsk in a pincer attack and then negotiate some kind of quasi-surrender by the Novorussians. At most, they will try to enter a few important suburbs. I don't expect much action around Luganks - Donetsk is far more exposed.  Now, if I am correct and this is what happens, then please understand and remember this: the correct Novorussian response to this plan is to begin by retreating. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Novorussians to sit and fight from positions which are densely covered by Ukrainian artillery strikes. During the first Ukrainian attack I was dismayed to see how many people clearly did not understand the importance retreats in warfare. The "hurray-patriots" in particular were adamant that the initial Novorussian retreat was a clear sign that, as always, "Putin had betrayed Novorussia" (when the NAF went on a long and brilliant counter-offensive, these "hurray-patriots" fell silent for a while until the moment when Moscow stopped the NAF from seizing Mariupol, at which point they resumed chanting their mantra). The fact is that retreating against a superior forces is the logical thing to do, especially if you have had the time to prepare for a two, possibly, three echelon defense. While I do not know that for a fact, this is what I expect the Novorussians have been doing during all the length of the ceasefire: preparing a well-concealed and layered defense.  My hope and expectation is that once the JRF attacks the NAF will, again, carefully retreat, pull the JFR in, and then being to gradually degrade the attacking force. I particular hope that the Russians have finally send some much needed guided anti-tank weapons through the voentorg.

I was completely wrong.  Not only did the Novorussians stop the junta offensive more or less along the line of contact, but they went on the counter-offensive where they seized the heavily fortified Donetsk airport and then the entire Debaltsevo cauldron.  To say that I am extremely impressed is an understatement.

Military analyst always tend to be very cautious and assume the worst-case, and this is how it should be when lives are at stake, but I cannot explain away my complete failure to predict the Novorussian successes by some professional inclination.  What happened is that I got the Novorussian mentality completely wrong by assuming that their initial passivity was a predictor of their ability to fight.  A fundamentally flawed and mistaken assumption.

Still, I mostly got it right and so could have done all the advisors, analysts, area specialists, etc. working for the governments involved in that crisis and I bet you they did.  But either the politicians did not want to listen, or they wanted precisely that outcome.

The shameful and utterly disgusting fact is that everything that took place was completely predictable.  In fact, Putin, Lavrov and many more Russians officials *did* try to tell everybody that the Ukrainian people were cheerfully waltzing straight into a precipice, but nobody was willing to listen.  Instead, western politicians blamed the Russians for everything, which is just about the most intellectually dishonest and hypocritical thing they could have done.

In one year an entire country was destroyed, tens of thousands of people were murdered and millions are now left with nothing not even hope: the Ukraine is a failed state, having now gone through Dmitri Orlov's "five stages of collapse".  Kiev is in the hands of a regime of incompetent Nazi freaks and the only alternative to them looks even worse.

Make no mistake, if the Donbass is now probably safe from any future junta attacks, the risks for the rest of the rump-Ukraine are still huge and an even bigger bloodbath could happen next.

What is evident is that Poroshenko is a "goner": this sad buffoon promised peace to the Ukrainian people and instead he gave them a year long bloodbath culminating in a strategic defeat which cost the Ukrainians about half of their more or less combat capable forces.  The only thing which keeps Poroshenko in power now is the political support of the USA and the political recognition by the EU and Russia.  But the rest of the freaks in power don't care one bit about the EU or Russia and I predict that they will try to eject him at the first possibility.  When I look at list of freaks likely to succeed Poroshenko I get a knot in my stomach: if Poroshenko was a political prostitute and a spineless, incompetent imbecile, he was at least not clinically insane.  Most of his likely successors are.  As for Iats or Turchinov, I personally think that they are demoniacally possessed which is arguably even worse than being clinically insane.

In conclusion I will just say that if I believe that all the horrors of the past year were fully avoidable, I also believe that the horrors of the next, upcoming, year are not: the Ukraine has plunged over the cliff and is now heading for the very same future as Libya (another western "success story").  I hope that I am wrong and that I am missing something crucial, but I personally do not see any way to stop the implosion of the rump-Ukraine and my advise to anybody still living there would be to get out while you can.

In them meantime in Moscow there was a "anti-Maidan" demonstration planned for 10'000 people.  35'000-50'000 showed up to say "we will not forget, we will not forgive" and "no Maidan in Russia".  This anti-Maidan movement which was just formed very recently has a very bright political future because after watching the horrors right across their border and accepting close to a million refugees from the Ukraine, the vast majority of Russians want nothing to do with a Maidan-like event in Russia.  Combine that with the still 80%+ popularity of Putin in spite of western sanctions, and you will see that Russia is safe from the kind of events which happened in Kiev a year ago.

The virus which killed the Ukraine will act as a vaccine for Russia.

The Saker