This projection is based on a new CDC model that assumes people are being infected with Ebola at a geometrically increasing rate, and that there are 2.5 times more cases than are being reported, the agency said in its new report.
However, this worst-case scenario may be averted, given the international relief response to the epidemic during the past month, CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said during a morning news conference.
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The reported projections are based on numbers from the end of August, and since then the United States and other nations have stepped up their relief efforts.
“One of the things that’s been so striking is how fluid things have been on the ground,” Frieden said.
“Even a week or two ago, I would have expected things to look differently than they do now.”
Ebola cases in West Africa currently have reached an estimated 5,800 infections in people and more than 2,800 deaths, according to the World Health Organisation.
The new CDC model specifically focuses on the value of isolating Ebola patients to prevent spread of the deadly virus. The agency found that up to now, total Ebola cases are doubling approximately every 20 days in the two countries because people with the virus are coming into contact with healthy people and infecting them.
If seven out of 10 Ebola patients were isolated in their homes or a treatment center, the epidemic in both Liberia and Sierra Leone could be broken by mid-January — a drastically different projection than the worst-case scenario, officials said.
“If you get enough people effectively isolated, the epidemic can be stopped,” Frieden said.
“Related to that, when you reach a higher enough number, the number of cases plummets rapidly, almost as rapidly as the exponential rise we’re seeing now.”
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