This video was supposedly made near Homs and supposedly shows a “large Russian aircraft and 4 escorts”. Maybe. The large aircraft could be either Il-76 (transport) or Il-78 (refueling). The four smaller aircraft are not escorts, but probably SU-24, and if that guess of mine is correct, then this is interesting. Careful now! Iran also has Il-76 and SU-24s, so we don’t know for sure that these are Russian. But if these are, indeed, Russian SU-24s that would significant as the Syrian Air Forces does not have such aircraft.
The SU-24 is an old but still very capable ground attack aircraft, roughly similar to the US F-111. It’s main purpose is to accurately deliver about 8’000km of bombs, including in night operations and bad weather. Right now, in Russia, this aircraft is being phased out and replaced by the much more capable SU-34, which means that there could soon be a lot of unused SU-24 (and parts!) with a fairly modern avionics and targeting suites available. If confirmed, the presence of Russian SU-24s would mark a quantum leap for the capabilities of the government forces.
Again, let’s not jump to conclusions – at this point in time this is an unconfirmed video showing unidentified aircraft. But in the general Syrian context, this video makes sense. SU-24 could be operating out of Latakia and they could be very effective against Daesh.
We will have to keep an eye on this one.
The Saker
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