The 23rd anniversary of Ukraine's independence, that will be celebrated on August 24, comes as the most tragic national day for a war-ravaged country in the heart of Europe. Military parade in Kiev is overshadowed by the Ukrainian army punitive operation in the eastern regions amid failed diplomatic efforts to reach a much-awaited ceasefire.
Studio guest Thomas Heine, observer of Politiken daily and prominent author from Copenhagen, Denmark, Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center of International Security, Institute of World Economy and International Relations of Russian Academy of Sciences, and Doctor Hubertus Hoffman, the founder and president of World Security Network Foundation in Germany, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Do you think a diplomatic solution is on the table for this crisis?
Thomas Heine: I don’t think it will be very rapid, but it is definitely positive that people are talking now. And I think that the Summit in Minsk is a very important development.
What is the likely outcome of the meeting?
Thomas Heine: Hopefully, lowering of tensions, a start of a dialog and diminishing the risk of what, I think, everybody in Europe is fearing of, which is a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
What can be a platform for a compromise?
Thomas Heine: I think the Europeans are quite adamant that the Donbas region is an integrant part of Ukraine and that Russia should stop its military help to the insurgents. At the same time, Europe is very much hoping for the Government in Kiev to show restraint and to make sure that innocent lives are not spilt in Luhansk and Donetsk, and also having Poroshenko giving guarantees that the rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine will be upheld.
Angela Merkel is travelling to Kiev this weekend. What do you think is the reason for this meeting in Kiev?
Alexei Arbatov: I think that the EU leaders will try to persuade President Poroshenko that it would be wise to agree on a ceasefire, because the continued military operation will not bring victory to the Ukrainian army, but will rather multiply the destruction, fatalities and the outflow of the refugees.
What can be a compromise on the issue of the future political structure of Ukraine?
Alexei Arbatov: The political structure of Ukraine is a domestic problem. But, certainly, the present arrangement should be changed. In particular, there needs to be a decentralization to give the rights to the provinces to elect their legislative and executive authorities. This is a very democratic procedure and I don’t see any reason why that should not be done. Much greater financial, social autonomy, in particular with respect to taxation – this is also quite a democratic thing.
To recognize the right of those regions to maintain their traditional ties with Russia, to speak the Russian language, which should be recognized as the equal state language at the local level. And it doesn’t necessarily relate only to the Russian language. Ukraine is a multinational country and in some other areas there are some other ethnic groups, who would also like to have their language to be given an equal status with the Ukrainian at the local level. That is the second profile of an agreement.
And on a macro scale, of course, the West – the EU and the US – Russia and the Ukrainian Government have to find some agreement on the future of Ukraine as a state. A neutral military status, so that Ukraine doesn’t become a member of NATO, guarantees of security, the withdrawal of the Russian troops from the border areas, maybe some additional arrangements to ensure that there is no troops concentration there and transparency inspections.
Why Angela Merkel is travelling to Kiev and what is on the agenda for this meeting?
Dr. Hubertus Hoffman: It is more of a symbolic meeting to show solidarity from the German people to the Ukrainians. And as you are aware, Germany tries to reach a consensus between Ukraine and Russia. It is time to end the conflict now and a consensus can be reached. A consensus can look like the protection of the Russian identity and I think we should copy the best practices to appreciate the cultural diversity.
For Russia, I don’t understand what Russia wants. I fully understand, it wants to protect the Russian identity, and I 100% agree with this, but if you do it with weapons, I doubt. So, I think we have to end this conflict. Now it is the right time and the initiative must come from Russia and Mrs. Merkel could help to convince the Ukrainians to agree as well.
I just heard on the German television the Foreign Minister of Ukraine and he said that we have a plan which is supported by the Government of Ukraine and by the EU, and by the US, and it integrates autonomy for the east. So, now it is time for the Russian side to come up with a detailed plan what to do and a consensus can be reached.
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