Sunday, October 11, 2015

Week one of the Russian military intervention in Syria



This column was originally written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-one-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria/
The speed at which the Russian military operation in Syria was conducted what a big surprise for the US intelligence community (which I can hardly blame as I was just as surprised myself). Make no mistake here, the Russian force in Syria is a small one, at least for the time being, and it does not even remotely resemble what the rumors had predicted, but it is especially the manner in which it is being used which is very original: as a type of “ force multiplier ” for the Syrian military and a likely cover for the Iranian one. This is a very elegant solution in which a small force achieves a disproportionately big result. This is also a rather dangerous strategy, because it leaves the force very vulnerable, but one which, at least so far, Putin very successfully explained to the Russian people.
According to the most recent poll , 66% of Russian support the airstrikes in Syria while 19% oppose them. Considering the risks involved, these are extremely good numbers. Putin’s personal popularity, by the way, is still at a phenomenal 85% (all these figures have an margin of error of 3.4%). Still, these figures indicate to me that the potential for concern and, possibly, disappointment is present. The big advantage that Putin has over any US President is that Russians understand that wars, all wars, have a cost, and they are therefore nowhere as casualty-averse as the people in the USA or Europe. Still, while combat footage taken from UAV is a good start, Putin will have to be able to show something more tangible soon. Hence, probably, the current Syrian army counter-offensive. Still, the current way of triumphalism in Russia makes me nervous.
The reaction in the West, however, has been very negative, especially after the Russian cruise missile attacks (which mark the first time ever that the Russians have used their non-nuclear but strategic forces in a show of force aimed less as Daesh than at the USA).







On October 8th, the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, declared:

We have not and will not agree to cooperate with Russia so long as they continue to pursue this misguided strategy. We’ve seen increasingly unprofessional behavior from Russian forces. They violated Turkish airspace, which as all of us here made clear earlier this week, and strongly affirmed today here in Brussels, is NATO airspace. They’ve shot cruise missiles from a ship in the Caspian Sea without warning. They’ve come within just a few miles of one of our unmanned aerial vehicles. They have initiated a joint ground offensive with the Syrian regime, shattering the facade that they’re there to fight ISIL. 
This will have consequences for Russia itself, which is rightfully fearful of attack upon Russia. And I also expect that in coming days, the Russians will begin to suffer casualties in Syria (Source:http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622454/press-conference-by-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium )
On the next day, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov replied by saying:
Representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry, in their evaluation of the actions of the US military and the various operations they are engaged worldwide, have never sunk down to the level to publicly express the hope for the death of US servicemen or, even less so, of ordinary Americans. Today’s announcement Pentagon chief Ashton Carter, unfortunately clearly illustrates the current level of political culture of some representatives of the US government or, should I say, their level of cynicism towards the rest of the world. I am sure that no US general would ever have allowed himself to express such feelings. (Source:http://tass.ru/politika/2331242 )
Does that not remind you of something? Does that not sound like a repeat of the threat made by Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan ‘s threat to unleash ‘Chechen’ terror attacks against Russia? At the very least, this is, yet again, a sign that the US controls or, rather, thinks that it controls the Wahabi crazies and can unleash them against any opponent.
Typically, there are two basic ways the West handles any Russian military operation: they are either presented as mass murder and butchery or as gross, primitive and ineffective. CNN chose the second option and reported that “A number of cruise missiles launched from a Russian ship and aimed at targets in Syria have crashed in Iran, two U.S. officials told CNN Thursday”. Both Russia and Iran immediately denied that, as for the State Department and the Pentagon, they have refused to confirm or deny these reports.
Maria Zakarova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry reacted with disgust to these reports on her FB account and wrote : “I have read the CNN reports claiming that “Russian cruise missiles fell in Iran.” I wonder, do they write that out of impotent anger, or what? As for the constantreferences to “sources” they remind of the channeling of water from the sewer”.
Clearly, the Russians are rather disgusted with the rather pathetic US reactions to the Russian military operation. As for US officials, they appear rather clueless as to what do do next.
However, these appearances can be deceiving: this “game” is very far from being over.
As I have written in a recent column , the notion that Russia has established a no-fly zone over Syria is plain false: four SU-30MS, even if backed by six SU-34s are not enough to establish any kind of no-fly zone. The real mission of these SU-30MSs is to protect the Russian Air Force from any overzealous Turkish or Israeli fighter, not to establish a no-fly zone. In fact, according to the commander of the USAF operation over Syria, the US flies many more sorties than the Russians. What he does not add is that most of these US sorties do not include the release of weapons whereas all the Russian ones do. But, really, this is comparing apples and oranges. The USAF can fly as many sorties as it wants, only the Russian aircraft are operating in close coordination with Syrian and Iranian ground forces.
What worries me most is that people on both sides like to engage in cheap bravado and say things like “the Americans/Russians would never dare to attack a Russian/American aircraft”. This is a very dangerous way of thinking about what is going on because it ignores all the historical evidence for decision-makers taking very dumb decisions to try to avoid appearing humiliated by the other side (Ehud Olmert in 2006, immediately comes to mind). The fact that Obama and the USA look totally out-smarted is nice, of course, but also potentially very dangerous.
The good news is that, at least for the time being, neither Russia nor the USA are directly threatening each other, at least not on a military level. The USAF apparently has decided on a 20miles “avoidance radius” and while the Russians have not made any statements about this, I am pretty sure that they also go out of their way not to interfere with the Americans, much less so threaten them directly. Still, this situation is inherently dangerous.
Since this is a real combat zone and not just some peacetime patrol area, Russian and American aircraft have to use radar modes which are normally associated with a hostile intent: not just scan the skies for any potential enemy, but also actively track any detected aircraft. This is a very delicate situation because once a radar has acquired an aircraft and is actively tracking it all the pilot has to do to attack is press one button. For the pilot in the aircraft being tracked, this is similar to having a gun pointed at you – it makes you very nervous. To make things worse, modern aircraft can actually engage each other without using these radar modes and they can try to hide their radar signals, but that only adds to the tension. It is precisely because the US and Russia are two nuclear powers that it is crucial that neither side count on the other one to “blink first” or play any game of chicken. The politicians can indulge in this kind of nonsense, but I hope that the generals on both sides will do everything in their power to avoid any such situation. Right now, the situation appears to be under control, but it could get worse very fast. Hopefully, the Pentagon and the Russian General Staff will come to an “de-conflicting” agreement soon.
There are numerous reports that Iran is preparing a major intervention in Syria. These reports come from many sources and I consider them credible simply because there is no way that the very limited Russian intervention can really change the time of the war, at least not by itself. Yes, I do insist that the Russian intervention is a very limited one. 12 SU-24M, 12 SU-25SM, 6 SU-34 and 4 SU-30SM are not a big force, not even backed by helicopters and cruise missiles. Yes, the Russian force has been very effective to relieve the pressure on the northwestern front and to allow for a Syrian Army counter-offensive, but that will not, by itself, end the war. For one thing, should things get really ugly, the Daesh crazies can simply repeat what they have already done in the past: cross the border into Turkey, Jordan and Iraq.

Furthermore, you cannot hold any ground from the air. For that, “boots on the ground” are needed and Russian boots are not coming – Putin has unambiguously stated that (although he did leave a small door open for a future change of strategy by saying that a ground intervention was not in the “current plans”). Regardless, anything short of a minor or very short intervention would be fantastically hard to sell in Russia and I therefore still don’t believe that it will happen. My bet is on the Iranians. Well, when I say “Iranians” I mean Iranians and their allies, including Hezbollah, but not necessarily in Iranian uniforms.
Chances are, the Iranians and the Syrians will want to keep the magnitude of the Iranian involvement as hidden from view as possible. But, of course, they won’t be able to fool the USA, Turkey or Israel for very long, at least not if a large Iranian force is involved.
So the big question for me is this: what will the USA do if (when?) Iran intervenes in Syria?
Chances are that the Iraqis will request the Russian help to defeat Daesh exactly at the moment when the Iranians make their move. If the Russians agree, and it looks like they might, the Russian Air Force will, in fact, be providing air cover for the Iranian forces moving across Iraq towards Syria. My guess is that the Russians will try to get some UNSC Resolution to allow an international intervention in Syria or that, failing that, they will try to get some kind of deal with the USA. But that is going to be awfully hard, as they Neocons will go ballistic if the Iranians actually make a big move into Syria.
Right now the Russian Air Force does not have the resources needed to support an Iranian move into Syria, and that might be the reason for a reappearance of the rumor about “six MiG-31s” going to Syria . I personally have seen no evidence for that, at least not form any halfway dencent source, but if that does really happen, then this will become a major game-changer because one thing is certain: MiG-31s will never be used against Daesh or even a few isolated Turkish or Israeli fighters; if the MiG-31s ever really show up in the Syrian skies, their goal will be to keep control of the Syrian airspace and that implies a direct and credible threat against the US and its allies. The same goes for the actual deployment of S-300s. Thank God,we are not there yet. But unless the Syrian Army manages an extremely successful offensive against Daesh, a large Iranian intervention will become very likely. Then things will become very dangerous indeed.
In the meantime, NATO is still busy making big statement about being “ ready to defend Turkey ” while McCain declares that the US and Russia are engaged in a “ proxy war ”. We ought to be grateful for such loud emissions of hot hair because, hopefully, as long as the western leaders feel that their empty talk makes them look credible, they will not be tempted to do something truly stupid and dangerous.
These are definitely dangerous times.
The Saker

There is an exhaustive explanation for the disgrace of the American allies in Syria





by Evgenii Krutikov
Translated by Carpatho-Russian
The scandal around the “Thirtieth Division”, prepared by American instructors for war with Assad, but who immediately surrendered to the Islamic “al-Nusra Front” right after crossing the Turkish border, is resounding around the entire world now. There will be many such scandals. They are predetermined by the very methodology of the American instruction of “allies” in Syria, a well as in Georgia or in Ukraine.

Russia is an aggressor again?!



Saturday, October 10, 2015

What's Behind Carter's Claim That Russia Will Suffer Casualties in Syria?



When US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said that he expects Russia will soon suffer casualties, his phrase sparked the question whether the Pentagon has a Soviet-Afghanistan redux in mind for Syria, Germany-based political scientist and analyst Phil Butler remarks.

The real life "war on ISIL" conducted by the US is completely different from what Washington's tame media sources are telling the public: in fact it is a part of a US strategy of widespread regime change across much of the world, Germany-based American political scientist and analyst Phil Butler notes.

Update: Russian Aerospace Forces Conduct 64 Sorties in Syria, Hit 55 ISIL Targets



The Russian Aerospace Forces have conducted 64 sorties in Syria hitting 55 ISIL targets, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday.

The Russian military has increased the intensity of combat flights in Syria as the number of ISIL targets has grown, the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman said.
"The increased intensity of the combat missions of our aircraft is related to a significant rise of the number of ground targets identified by means of air and space reconnaissance throughout the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic," Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said adding that the strikes are conducted by Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft.
Russian airstrikes in Syria have significantly reduced ISIL's combat potential, their mobility as well as the terrorists' ability to attack, he said.

Russian Aerospace Forces Conduct 64 Sorties in Syria, Hit 55 ISIL Targets



The Russian Aerospace Forces have conducted 64 sorties in Syria hitting 55 ISIL targets, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday. The Russian military has increased the intensity of combat flights in Syria as the number of ISIL targets has grown, the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman said.
"The increase in the intensity of the combat missions of our aircraft is related to a significant increase in the number of ground targets identified by means of air and space reconnaissance throughout the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic," Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said adding that the strikes are conducted by Su-34, Su-24M and Su-25SM aircraft.

Details to follow

Friday, October 9, 2015

Game-Changer: Russia's Involvement in Syria Shifts Balance of Power



Russia's military involvement in Syria is undeniably a game-changer in the Middle East, US geopolitical analyst Eric Draitser told Sputnik, adding that Washington will definitely try to restore its shrinking positions in the region at all costs.

It is naïve to believe that Washington will eat its humble pie and admit that its decade-long policy in the Middle East has been a complete failure; it is more likely that US hawks will do whatever it takes to bolster their shrinking influence in the region.

What are NATO Colonial forces Doing in Syria? ...Nothing




At a time when members of the international community could take meaningful steps to assist Syria in its fight against Islamic extremists, NATO has chosen to play the blame game and engage in tough rhetoric.

In general, the answer to the simple question of what the North Atlantic Alliance is exactly doing in Syria is nothing, journalist Artem Aslanyan maintains. "NATO representatives mostly criticize the Assad regime and Russian airstrikes in Syria."


The alliance lacks a comprehensive strategy towards Syria. Member states did not come up with one during NATO's latest summit in September 2014. Back then, the years-long civil war and Islamic State activities took backstage to the conflict in Ukraine.

Countries 'Liberated' by US Ask Russia for Help in Fighting Terrorism




Iraq and Afghanistan, which once were "liberated and democratized" by the US, are now reaching out for help from Russia in fighting ISIL terrorists. Moscow is ready to help but only in response to an official government request, Il Giornale reported.


Airstrikes in Syria Prove 'Russia Will Not Tolerate Half-Way Measures in Fighting Terrorism'
"The balance of power has changed in the Middle East," the article read.

Russian Jets Carry Out Record 67 Sorties Against ISIL Targets in Syria



Russian jets have carried out 67 sorties against the Islamic State targets in Syria in past 24 hours, Russian Air Force chief Lieutenant General Igor Makushev told journalists.

Attack aircraft from the Russian air group deployed in Syria carried out record 67 combat missions in the past 24 hours hitting a total of 60 Islamic State targets, the Russian General Staff said Friday.

"In the past 24 hours, the Russian combat aircraft carried out 67 missions. The Sukhoi Su-34 and Su-24SM planes destroyed 60 terrorist targets," Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Lt. Gen. Igor Makushev told reporters in Moscow.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Photo od the day: Russia! Please stop!



Russia Blasts Ash Carter's Predictions of Russian Casualties in Syria




The Russian Defense Ministry sharply criticized Ash Carter over his remarks predicting Russian casualties in Syria.

The Russian Defense Ministry sharply criticized on Thursday US Defense Secretary Ash Carter over his remarks predicting Russian casualties in Syria in the near future.

Carter said earlier on Thursday that he expected Russian forces in Syria “will begin to suffer casualties" in "coming days” as they provide support in an ongoing ground offensive launched by the Syrian army on Islamic State terrorists.

Tehran Has No Info on Cruise Missiles Which Allegedly Landed in Iran



Iranian defense ministry believes reports on "fallen Russian cruise missiles" are part of the intensified western propaganda war, according to a source.

Tehran has denied US reports that four of Russia's cruise missiles targeting ISIL actually fell to the ground in Iran, with the country's defense ministry calling the accusations "psychological war."

Russia's Defense Ministry also refutes US media reports of an alleged incident involving cruise missiles which were fired at ISIL positions in Syria on October 7, stating that all missiles hit their designated targets.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Syrian Missile Defense Systems 'Harass' Turkish Jets



An F-16 aircraft conducting patrol flights along the Turkish-Syrian border was harassed by the Syrian missile systems for 30 seconds, according to the statement of the Turkish General Staff.

ANKARA  – The Turkish General Staff accused Syrian air defense system radars on Wednesday of "harassing" its aircraft on the Turkish-Syrian border.

"Eight F-16 aircraft conducted patrol flights along the Turkish-Syrian border. During this mission, our plane was harassed by the Syrian missile systems for 30 seconds," the general staff said in a statement, referring to an incident that took place on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the Turkish General Staff said an unidentified MiG-29 followed its F-16 fighters that were patrolling the Turkish-Syrian border and activated its target system for 4.5 minutes the previous day.

Happy Birthday !! #PutinDay: Social Media Celebrates Russian Leader’s Birthday



Today, President Vladimir Putin is celebrating his 63rd birthday. As expected, the leader's special day has caused a ruckus on social media, with supporters both inside and outside Russia already coming up with some clever ways to congratulate the leader.
The president is reported to be celebrating his birthday in a rather reserved manner, spending it as just another day at work. However, he does have plans to play some hockey with famous veteran hockey players and members of the Night Hockey League later today. As expected, the president has already received some traditional birthday greetings from foreign leaders. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Belarus have sent their best wishes. Putin was also congratulated by Narendra Modi, who offered a more up-to-date form of greeting, wishing Putin "long life, good health & happiness" in a tweet. The prime minister's tweet has already received 1,000 retweets. Naturally, the president also received greetings from Russian political figures, from parliamentarians to governors and republican leaders. Probably the warmest message of greeting came from Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who congratulated the president on Instagram.
Дорогие друзья! Сегодня день рождения самого популярного, мужественного, сильного, мудрого и волевого политика на свете! Это Президент России Владимир Путин! Мой народ, моя республика и вся Россия безгранично благодарны ему за политическую твёрдость, проявленную в борьбе с злейшими врагами Отечества на Северном Кавказе. Благодаря Его безоговорочной поддержке Первого Президента ЧР, Героя России Ахмат-Хаджи Кадырова, удалось разгромить международных террористов, спасти народ, предотвратить развал России, о котором мечтали наши злейшие враги. Сегодня Чечня служит для всего мира образцом согласия и стабильности. В новейшей истории Владимир Владимирович показал истинно мужской характер, сорвав все планы западной коалиции, стремящейся изолировать Россию от решения международных дел. Сегодня Президент России принимает полный комплекс мер, направленных на спасение всего человечества от сотен тысяч террористов Иблисского государства. Дорогой Владимир Владимирович! Заверяю Вас, что весь чеченский народ, все мусульмане России, все истинные патриоты Отечества с Вами! С Вами весь народ России! Ради такого признания можно прожить десять жизней и все эти десять жизней посвятить своему народу! Уважаемый Владимир Владимирович, мы Ваша пехота, готовая выполнить приказ любой сложности и важности, выполнить его в любой точке земного шара! Я желаю Вам крепкого здоровья, успехов и удачи в Вашей исключительно трудной и ответственной работе! С днём рождения Вас! #Кадыров #Россия #Путин #Чечня #Москва #Кремль #Президент A photo posted by Аллах Велик!!! (@kadyrov_95) on
Kadyrov's message of congratulations praised Putin as "the most popular, courageous, strong, wise, and strong-willed politician in the world," wishing him "good health, good luck and success" in his "very difficult and responsible work!" The Russian president also received congratulations from famous artists and public figures, including world-famous Italian musicians Toto Cutugno, Pupo, Al Bano, Ricchi e Poveri and Riccardo Fogli, who noted on a Facebook page of an Italian Putin fan club page that the Russian president is today "the main bulwark against the unipolar world and international terrorism!"
Le nostre star Toto Cutugno, Pupo, Albano, Ricchi e Poveri e Riccardo Fogli hanno rivolto gli auguri di buon compleanno... Posted by Vladimir Putin Italian Fan Club 2.0 on Tuesday, October 6, 2015
The news media joined in on the fun, Ruptly offering a humorous compilation of the president's greatest moments of 2015. Even the normally anti-Putin liberal English-language newspaper The Moscow Times couldn't help but fete the president, creating an entire article, suspiciously reminiscent of a recent Sputnik piece, complete with quotes and GIFs, on the president's anniversary.
Because it wouldn't be a birthday without GIFs! Posted by The Moscow Times on Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Celebrities and politicians aside, Putin has also received a ton of congratulations from social media users around the world, with the hashtag #PutinDay catching fire on Twitter. Users from Russia and around the world congratulated the Russian president on his special day.
Happy Birthday Vladimir Vladimirovich! You more than anyone else, are worthy of the people's love!"
The dollar fell below 63 rubles, as a sign of respect."
Vladimir Putin's 63rd birthday is today. Greetings!#SouthFront #Russia #Putin Posted by SouthFront on Wednesday, October 7, 2015
The coolest president is celebrating his birthday." See more here

Defense Ministry Releases Video of Cruise Missile Strikes on ISIL Targets





The Russian Ministry of Defense has released video footage showing its nighttime cruise missile strikes from the Caspian Sea against Islamic State targets in Syria.

The assembled footage features video and animation of Russian ships launching cruise missile strikes against Islamic State targets from the Caspian Sea. The video combines computer-generated imagery showing the cruise missiles' trajectory with footage of the missiles flying over western Iran and northern Iraq before arriving at their targets in northern Syria.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

'Relentless' Russian Airstrikes Caught Terrified ISIL Off Guard - Source




A recent series of airstrikes launched by Russian air forces against the Islamic State in Syria caused the ISIL militants to evacuate their checkpoints in Raqqa and to cancel all public events there.

A source in the Islamic State’s so-called 'capital' told Sputnik on condition of anonymity that Russian airstrikes have caused widespread panic among the Islamist militants who apparently were not expecting such a relentless assault.
"They thought that Russian warplanes would act like their American counterparts – that they would launch some sporadic surgical strikes at dusk and then they would fly away," the source said. "Instead, Russian military aircraft constantly bombard ISIS positions in the vicinity of Raqqa, and these massed strikes have completely paralyzed the Islamist group’s activities. The Russian air operation proved to be extremely effective."

'Russian Tweet Disparages US-led Coalition Efforts to Arm Syrian Rebels'



The Western media seems to be so upset with the success of Russia’s anti-ISIL campaign that it has gone as far as accusing the Russian Foreign Ministry’s overseas envoys of “disparaging the efforts of the US and its allies, who have armed non-extremist anti-government forces in the country.”

This complaint, voiced by the UK newspaper The Independent, came in response to a tweet posted by Russia's Embassy in the United Arab Emirates.


Finland Busts Key Refugee Myth: They Are Mostly Male and Not From Syria




The vast majority of refugees arriving in Finland are in fact male adults and not women or children, according to the country’s Ministry of the Interior.


The head of Finland's Immigration Services asylum unit, Esko Repo, and communications chief Hanna Kautto told the Finnish news outlet Yle that out of the 19,632 refugees that have arrived in Finland this year, over 15 thousand are adult males. The number of female migrants totals 2,816 and there are also about 2,000 children travelling with adults as well as roughly one thousand unaccompanied minors.
Furthermore, only 409 of the refugees came from Syria, with the majority of the migrants – nearly 14 thousand people – arriving from Iraq.

Russian Warplanes Destroy ISIL HQ Near Palmyra, Up To 40 Militants Killed



A Russian military spokesman dismissed earlier reports that Russian warplanes had bombed the ancient city of Palmyra, as was claimed by several international media outlets.

Russian warplanes destroyed an ISIL command center on the outskirts of Syria's Palmyra, killing up to 40 militants, a Syrian military source told Sputnik on Tuesday.  The command center was located near the town of As Sukhnah 28 km away from Palmyra.

ST

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